Europe Expects Little Change After US Midterms, Officials Say

As Americans head to the polls on 3 November, European officials are not expecting major changes even if Democrats win control of Congress, according to AFP. Despite hopes that a new Congress might curb President Donald Trump, diplomats in Brussels and NATO doubt it would silence him internationally. "We don't think the unpredictability will change," a senior European diplomat said.

On Ukraine, EU officials do not expect US support to increase again. They note that while a Democratic wave might bring a louder pro-Ukraine majority, the focus in Brussels is on a €70 billion gap in Ukraine's budget for next year. Countries like the UK, Canada and Japan are being asked to do more, but Washington is not being counted on. Tariffs are another area where little optimism exists. Officials point out that even President Joe Biden took months to lift steel tariffs after Trump's first term, and some restrictions remained. A CFR survey found only a quarter of Americans support eliminating all tariffs on the EU.

On defence, European allies are nervously awaiting a Pentagon review of US forces in Europe due in December. Most expect some reduction, but hope cuts are not too deep. NATO diplomats do not think the midterms will affect the review. Meanwhile, Europe is already taking steps to take more responsibility for its own defence. "Whatever the outcome, we will continue," one diplomat said.

There is also fear that things could get worse. If Republicans keep their majorities, it could embolden Trump. If they lose, he might try to distract from domestic problems by creating tensions abroad, according to Bruce Stokes of the German Marshall Fund. Stokes noted a long-standing pattern of presidents turning to international attention when they have issues at home.